A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
